IMD: very severe cyclone risk, Andhra

This note is verified. The series is NP EXPLAINS. The carousel was posted at 8:58 am IST on 25 October 2026. The stamp is VERIFIED. The cover is an NP graphic, and the data are credited to IMD. No IMD image is used. The line that sits with every figure below is this: as of IMD Bulletin No. 2, 02:00 IST on 25 October; forecasts may change.

IMD National Bulletin No. 2 is numbered BOB/08/2026. It was issued at 02:00 IST on 25 October, from observations at 23:30 IST on 24 October. The caption, and the bulletin as this package uses it, say the low over the Bay of Bengal became a depression at 17:30 IST on 24 October. The brief places that depression over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. It is a depression. A cyclone had not formed when this bulletin was issued. The bulletin does not give the depression a name, and this note does not add one.

The forecast in that bulletin, which the caption sets out, runs in four steps. IMD expects a deep depression on 25 October. It expects a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October. It expects a severe cyclonic storm on 27 October. It expects a very severe cyclonic storm near the Andhra coast by the morning of 28 October. Each of those lines is a forecast of a later stage. None of them is a report that the later stage has already happened.

On the coast, IMD says the system is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October. The wind line in the same forecast is 115-125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph. The caption says this is a forecast and that the track can change. This note does not pick one town inside that stretch, and it does not set a clock time inside that forenoon. The Hindu is named as a report of this forecast. The forecast itself is IMD's.

The alert with the forecast is a Pre-Cyclone Watch, a Yellow Message, for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts. For rain, the forecast is isolated extremely heavy rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 27 and 28 October.

The fishermen's line, attributed to IMD, is not to venture into the west-central Bay on 26, 27 and 28 October, and not to venture along and off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts on 27 and 28 October. The caption adds that people should follow official alerts from IMD, from the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) and from the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA), and the advice of the local administration.

This page is an update. The package note says it updates the 24 October 08:38 package, which forecast only a cyclonic storm near north Andhra and south Odisha. The sources named for this bulletin are IMD National Bulletin No. 2, an IMD press release of 24 October, and The Hindu. The brief also names an earlier Hindu report with that earlier forecast. A check of mausam.imd.gov.in and the RSMC New Delhi page at about 9:00 am IST on 25 October found no newer bulletin. The latest tropical weather outlook (TWO) listing was 25 October at 02:20 IST.

Read together, the lines that stay inside the bulletin are these. The system is a depression, formed at 17:30 IST on 24 October over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The forecast steps are a deep depression on 25 October, a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October, a severe cyclonic storm on 27 October, and a very severe cyclonic storm near the Andhra coast by the morning of 28 October. The likely crossing is the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October, with winds of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph. The watch is a Yellow Message for Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha. Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 27 and 28 October. Fishermen are advised to stay out of the west-central Bay on 26-28 October and out of the waters along and off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts on 27-28 October. This note does not report damage or deaths. It stops at the forecast.