Thwaites study: up to 30 mm by 2100

This note is NP EXPLAINS. The stamp is verified. The Nature Communications paper by Poinelli, Rignot, Seroussi, Cuzzone, Pelle and Larour was published on 12 October 2026. The stamp basis says the abstract and the results were read in full. The UC Irvine School of Physical Sciences release of 12 October, written with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was also read in full. The reel was posted at 4:22 pm IST on 17 October 2026. The caption's hashtag is NPExplains. Reports call Thwaites the "Doomsday Glacier." That nickname is theirs. This note uses it in quotation marks.

The paper's figure, as the stamp basis records it, is up to 30 mm, plus or minus 6 mm, of global mean sea-level rise by 2100. The caption writes "up to 30 mm" and converts that to about 1.2 inches. The same basis says this is approximately double previous projections, even without additional warming. The UC Irvine release confirms the reading. These are projections from a model. They are not a measurement of the sea in 2100.

The reason the new estimate is higher sits in the grounding zone, the place where the ice meets the seabed. The stamp basis says those zones are 2 to 5 km wide. The caption says warm ocean water goes kilometres in under the glacier, and the ice melts from below in that zone. Older models, the caption says, treated this as a thin line. The new model treats it as a zone that is kilometres wide.

A separate result should not be folded into the 30 mm figure. The stamp basis says simulations with a 4 to 6 km grounding zone, matching recent satellite data, give about a 60 percent probability of crossing Mouginot Ridge by 2100. That probability is for the lower-bound constant-forcing scenario. The caption calls it about a 60 percent chance that the glacier loses its hold on that undersea ridge by 2100, and it says this is a model's estimate, not a settled fact. The paper's 3 km case is 19.4 mm. That number stays on its own.

The caption adds a line for readers in India: the coastline is more than 7,500 km, global sea-level rise adds up slowly, and studies of this kind matter for coastal planning. The stamp basis says the coastline length is general knowledge. It is not taken from the Nature Communications paper or from the UC Irvine release. This note does not turn it into a finding about the Indian coast.

The visuals are NASA material in the public domain. One is a photograph of Thwaites Glacier, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory release 2014-148, the Wikimedia file Thwaites Glacier, labelled as a NASA file photo. The other is a NASA visualisation, Worldview Tour, Journey of Iceberg B-22, SVS5179, from NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio and Worldview. The reel's music is from Pixabay. The package says that track needs no credit.

Hindustan Times is listed in the source file with the read mark "no." This note does not cite it and does not use any fact that would have come only from that page.